How to Calculate the Probability of Trends

One of the problems with statistics is that it isn't an exact science, and predictions are only as good as the data you input into the problems. Even then, statistics sometimes gets it wrong. For example, election polls predict which way voters will vote, but their usefulness in actually predicting poll results is hotly debated. If you are using equations to predict future trends, your predictions are more likely to be right if you input quality data.

Instructions

    • 1

      Gather your data. Make sure you use solid statistical techniques to gather the data. For example, don't give participants the choice whether to participate or not: that will invalidate your data and is called a "voluntary response sample."

    • 2

      Take a sample from the right population. If you want a general idea of how well U.S. students might perform on a standardized test next year, don't just take samples from inner city schools or suburban schools. Limiting yourself in scope by only sampling a small number of schools will lead to a higher probability your results will be invalid.

    • 3

      Graph your data. When you've gathered your data, a graph is often the best way to predict future trends. For example, if your data looks like a line, you can use a ruler to extend the line upwards. Another possibility is that your data looks like a curve (for example, an exponential curve). Whatever your graph looks like, try to find a line or a curve that best fits your data (statisticians call this "regression.")

    • 4

      Calculate a future trend by referring to the extended section of your graph. For example, if you took results from yearly standardized tests, graphed them and found out that they formed a linear equation (a line), you can extend the graph with a ruler. Read the graph for next year's results by finding next year on the x-axis, tracing up to the graph and reading across to the y-axis.

Learnify Hub © www.0685.com All Rights Reserved