List all of the potential mathematical models that you can use to find the value that you are seeking. Determine the probability that each is correct by using the formulas for the calculation and then independently measuring a value. The percentage of the actual value is the "likelihood" that the model is correct.
Use the formula for AIC to apply the likelihood factor. The formula is negative two times the log of the probability plus two K, where K is the number of parameters in a formula.
AIC = -2 (ln (likelihood) ) + 2K
Calculate the consistent AIC values with zero being the best value and higher values representing formulas that are further from the truth. Mark each value next to the formulas on your list and find the lowest AIC score.