Select children's board games with spinners or use an online game. Look at the spinner with the children. Count how many places the spinner can stop. Note the children's answers so that everyone can see and discuss. Encourage children to describe the background under the spinner. They might notice that the background, or "field," looks like a pie with different colors or designs for each slice of the pie. The National Library of Virtual Manipulatives from Utah State University provides an online spinner that has a simple field of five colors. Use that for demonstration, and encourage the children to also note that the spinner might land between colors -- another five places -- requiring a re-spin.
Create a spreadsheet on the board or overhead projector. Write the colors from the Utah State spinner on the top cells: "Green," "Red," "Orange," "Purple" and "Yellow." Each child gets to spin the spinner and record the results in a cell under the color cell. Continue as many times as possible. After several rounds of "spinning," have the children discuss their findings in pairs, small groups or large groups. Then meet as a class for a summarizing session. Ask what the chances or probability would be for the spinner to stop on "red." After discussing, the children can summarize that the chances are one out of five, or one-fifth, or 1-to-5 of the spinner landing on "red" or any particular color.
Tap into children's prior knowledge of dice though board games such as "Chutes and Ladders." Place the game board where the first graders can see it using a document camera and overhead projector, or by giving each small group a game board. Let the children take turns rolling the dice and playing the game for a few minutes.
Create a chart or spreadsheet that the children can look at together on the board or overhead projector. List the numbers of possible dice combinations. Note the numbers 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12. For each number, list how many ways the dice can fall to create the number. Encourage the children to notice there is only one way to make a 2, by rolling two 1s. They will notice there are several ways to make the numbers above 3. Place a game token seven places away from a "ladder." Ask the children how many ways there are to get a 7. Then place the game token 2 places away from a chute. Invite the children to guess which one is harder to roll, a 7 or a 2. When they reply 2, they have summarized the chart and the data probability.
Ask first graders about tossing coins for heads or tails. Record their replies on the board or overhead projector. Create a chart that everyone can see or provide children with their own charts. Invite them to take turns flipping a coin and guessing "heads" or "tails." Then record their results.
Review the children's replies and encourage them to share their findings. Ask if they could predict whether a tossed coin would turn up "heads" or "tails." Share the informations with them that with two options, there is a 50-50 chance that the coin will be "heads" and a 50-50 chance that the coin will be "tails." Compare this with the children's answers. Discuss why some series of coin tosses resulted in more "heads" than "tails" or vice versa, and why to get a true 50-50 result, the coins must be tossed many times.
Conclude the probability lesson by asking the children to brainstorm ways that the spinner, dice and coins can be manipulated, whether fairly or unfairly, to change the outcome or probability. Help them through this task by discussing various game rules or rules they have made themselves while playing games.
Record their answers. Children might reply that for spinners, they can spin hard or lightly to try to get a desired result. For dice, children might share that if they wanted to roll 2, they might put the opposite dice in the palm of their hands and then just turn their hands upside down for the two "ones" to fall onto the game board. They may have noticed the same procedure for flipping coins.